Chapter 1 · July 2026
The transition paradox: record renewables meet record emissions
Renewables at record scale
The world added a record ~605 GW of solar in 2025, and renewables now make up close to half of global power capacity, with solar and wind driving nearly all new additions.
Battery storage installs jumped about 40% year-on-year, helping renewables cover most of the growth in electricity demand.Nuclear and fossil fuels
Nuclear capacity held near 420 GW with dozens of reactors under construction, over half in China, and small modular reactors edging toward commercialization.
Coal demand plateaued and gas growth slowed, while EVs reached about a quarter of new car sales.The AI data-center wildcard
Data-center electricity demand is growing far faster than overall demand, with AI-specific load rising sharply and accounting for a large share of US electricity growth — straining grids and equipment supply chains.
The paradox
Despite all this, fossil CO2 emissions hit a record in 2025, even as their growth rate slowed — clean energy is bending the curve, but absolute emissions are still rising, and the remaining budget for 1.5°C is nearly spent.
The open questions
Can nuclear scale enough to matter for net-zero, or will renewables carry it?