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The world · a living book
Geopolitics & the World Order
The shifting map of power — alliances, conflicts, trade, and what’s actually known.
1 chapterupdated July 2026sources linked in every chapter
The story so far
Early July 2026 finds tension on several fronts at once. After a US–Iran military clash, negotiators in Doha are working out how oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A US-brokered Russia–Ukraine ceasefire is holding only partially, with both sides reporting violations. China has stepped up legal and maritime pressure on Taiwan, and Washington has let the USMCA trade pact lapse into renegotiation with Canada and Mexico.
This book tracks the big situations plainly, and shows the sides where reasonable people disagree.
Chapter 1 · July 2026
The geopolitical landscape, early July 2026
The Strait of Hormuz
After recent US–Iran clashes, talks resumed in Doha over how to govern tanker passage through the Strait, with proposals for a fee structure and warnings to vessels to stick to approved routes. Roughly 10 million barrels a day move through the waterway, making its stability critical to global energy prices.
Russia and Ukraine
Despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework, both Russia and Ukraine report continued operations and casualties, and Kyiv has signaled it may revise its proposal, leaving the truce fragile.
China and Taiwan
Beijing enacted new criminal statutes aimed at Taiwanese identity and increased coast-guard activity in contested waters, while Taiwan told its shipping to refuse boarding requests — raising the temperature short of open conflict.
North American trade
Washington declined to renew the USMCA on schedule, reopening negotiations with Canada and Mexico and raising the prospect of new tariffs across a deeply integrated trade bloc.
The open questions
Renew USMCA largely as-is, or use the deadline as leverage?
Renew nowFast renewal preserves an enormous integrated market and avoids tariff shocks to consumers and cross-border supply chains.
CNBC RenegotiateLetting it lapse creates leverage to win stricter labor, nearshoring and China-containment terms that favor domestic manufacturing.
Atlantic Council A living book: chapters are dated and grow as the story develops. Nothing is deleted — the record just gets longer.