Leans Left
Raising the federal minimum wage to $15/hour and its effect on jobs and the economy
Whether a $15 federal minimum wage would mostly lift workers' pay or also cost some jobs is one of the most-studied — and most-disputed — questions in economics.
Video by Robert Reich (Inequality Media / The Gravel Institute) — former U.S. Secretary of Labor; left-coded economic commentator·watch·June 25, 2026
In short
The U.S. minimum wage has been $7.25 an hour since 2009. This video argues that raising it to $15 would help workers without hurting jobs. Most of its facts check out. The wage really has been frozen since 2009. The "$22 if pay had kept up with productivity" number is a real estimate from one think tank. The studies behind its claims about jobs and prices are real, named research.
But the video shows only one side of a long debate. Many economists find that big minimum-wage hikes do cost some jobs, mostly for teens and less-skilled workers. The video leaves out the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. In 2021 the CBO said a $15 wage by 2025 would lift pay for 17 million people and pull about 900,000 out of poverty — but might also cut about 1.4 million jobs. The range was wide: anywhere from almost no job loss to 3.7 million. (The video's "32 million" comes from a different group, EPI, which counts both direct raises and ripple-effect raises, so it is a bigger number than the CBO's 17 million.)
So the real picture is a trade-off, not a myth. Higher pay for many, with some risk of fewer jobs. Honest experts still disagree about how big each side is.
What the video claims, and where the numbers come from
| What the video says | Where the number comes from | How it holds up | Fuller context |
|---|---|---|---|
| If the federal minimum wage had risen with productivity since 1968, it would be over $22 an hour today, instead of the actual $7.25 (unchanged since 2009). | Traces to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI, left-leaning think tank), which has long published the 'wage vs. productivity gap' charts. EPI states that tying the 1968 minimum to productivity growth yields a figure 'over $22' (a related 2020 EPI/Common Dreams piece put it near $24). The actual $7.25 federal floor and the 2009 freeze are confirmed by the U.S. Department of Labor. Reliable trace: the number is a real EPI calculation, not invented, though it depends on which productivity measure is used. source | checks out | The $22 figure is a real EPI calculation, but it is a 'what-if.' It assumes pay should track total economy-wide productivity. Other economists tie wages to inflation instead, which gives a lower number (around $14 in today's dollars). Both the $7.25 floor and the freeze since 2009 are simply true. |
| Raising the minimum wage does not cut overall employment — a point made on this topic using the 1996 federal raise (about 10 million workers) and research on 138 state increases where low-wage jobs were 'essentially unchanged' five years later. | The '138 increases' study is real: Cengiz, Dube, Lindner, and Zipperer, 'The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs,' Quarterly Journal of Economics (2019). It examined 138 state-level increases from 1979-2016 and found the number of low-wage jobs 'essentially unchanged' over five years. The 1996 federal increase ($4.25 to $5.15) is real and was used in Card-Krueger-style research. Strong, traceable academic trace for the topic; we could not independently verify from a transcript that the video named these specific studies, so we present them as the leading research behind this 'no job loss' claim rather than attributing the citation to any person. source | still debated | The research behind this 'no job loss' claim is real and respected. But this is an active research debate. Economist David Neumark and others, reviewing many studies, find that most show some job loss, especially for teens and less-skilled workers. So 'no job loss' is one well-supported side of a question economists still argue about, not a settled fact. |
| Price effects are small (a 10% wage rise raises prices by less than half a percent), and a $15 minimum by 2025 would benefit 32 million workers. | The price figure traces to Renkin, Montialoux, and Siegenthaler, 'The Pass-Through of Minimum Wages into US Retail Prices' (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020), which found a 10% minimum-wage rise lifts grocery prices about 0.36%. The '32 million workers' figure traces directly to the Economic Policy Institute's 2021 report on raising the wage to $15 by 2025. Both are real, named sources. source | checks out | Both numbers come from real studies. The 0.36% grocery-price finding is from a peer-reviewed paper. The 32 million figure counts everyone who would get a raise, directly or through ripple effects. The video does not mention that the same kind of analysis also projects some job losses (see CBO below). |
The sources, left to right
Leans LeftEconomic Policy Institute — 'Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 by 2025 would lift the pay of 32 million workers'backs the video’s point
A $15 minimum by 2025 would raise pay for about 32 million workers and help lift families out of poverty. This is the direct source for the video's '32 million' figure.
CenterCengiz, Dube, Lindner & Zipperer — 'The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs,' Quarterly Journal of Economics (2019)backs the video’s point
Looking at 138 state minimum-wage increases, the number of low-wage jobs stayed about the same five years later. This peer-reviewed study backs the video's 'no job loss' claim.
CenterRenkin, Montialoux & Siegenthaler — 'The Pass-Through of Minimum Wages into US Retail Prices,' Review of Economics and Statistics (2020)backs the video’s point
A 10% minimum-wage increase raised grocery prices by only about 0.36%. This peer-reviewed study supports the video's claim that price effects are small.
CenterCongressional Budget Office — 'The Budgetary Effects of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021'
A $15 wage by 2025 would raise pay for 17 million people and lift about 900,000 out of poverty, but might cut roughly 1.4 million jobs (two-thirds likely range: near zero to 3.7 million). The video does not mention this trade-off.
CenterFactCheck.org — 'Paul Distorts CBO's Estimate on Impact of $15 Minimum Wage'
A neutral fact-check explaining the CBO numbers: a $15 wage would both raise pay for millions and likely cost some jobs (the CBO put the likely job-loss range at about zero to 3.7 million). It warns against using only one side of the estimate.
CenterDavid Neumark — 'Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say?,' Industrial Relations (2022)
Reviewing many studies, the author finds most show minimum-wage hikes do cut some jobs, especially for teens and less-skilled workers. This challenges the video's 'no job loss' framing.
Leans RightCato Institute — 'The Case against a $15 Federal Minimum Wage: Q&A'
Argues that a $15 federal minimum would reduce job opportunities for low-skilled workers and hit some regions harder than others. A clear source for the opposing view.
The data
CBO's 2021 estimate of a $15 wage by 2025: who gains
The nonpartisan CBO projected gains for many workers. These two counts are about people helped (see the next chart for the jobs-lost side). · source
CBO's 2021 estimate of a $15 wage by 2025: the jobs-lost side
The same CBO report projected job losses. The middle estimate is about 1.4 million, but the likely range runs from near zero up to 3.7 million. · source
How much do prices rise when the minimum wage goes up 10%?
Studies find small price effects. Grocery prices rose about 0.36% for a 10% wage hike. · source
Federal minimum wage: actual vs. 'what-if' benchmarks
The wage is $7.25. Where it 'would be' depends on which yardstick you use. · source