Leans Right
The scale of illegal immigration at the U.S. southern border
The scale of illegal immigration at the U.S. border, and what the published numbers actually measure, is counted and framed in very different ways.
In short
The video says about 8 million people crossed the U.S. southern border illegally from 2021 to 2024. It adds about 2 million more "gotaways" — people agents saw but did not catch — to reach about 10 million. Those numbers come from government data and a House committee report. The big total checks out as a count of border "encounters."
But there is more to know. An "encounter" is an event, not a person. The same person can try to cross many times in one year. Each try gets counted again. So the number of different people is lower than 10 million. About 1 in 4 crossings in 2021 were repeats.
Also, "gotaways" are an estimate, not an exact count. And not everyone counted got to stay. Fact-checkers say about 2.8 million were quickly sent back. So the data is real, but raw totals and the count of people who stayed are not the same thing. Other groups read the same numbers in different ways.
What the video claims, and where the numbers come from
| What the video says | Where the number comes from | How it holds up | Fuller context |
|---|---|---|---|
| About 8 million people illegally entered the U.S. from 2021 to 2024, according to U.S. government data. | CBP encounter data, summarized by the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security 'Startling Stats' factsheet: more than 8.72 million Southwest land border encounters since the start of FY2021 (and 10.8 million nationwide). Pew's compilation of Border Patrol apprehensions gives FY2021 1,659,206; FY2022 2,206,436; FY2023 2,045,838; FY2024 1,530,523. source | checks out | The ~8 million figure matches CBP Southwest border encounters (about 8.72M FY2021-FY2024). One key context the video omits: CBP and Pew state 'encounters' count events, not unique people, and include repeat crossers (recidivism was about 27% in FY2021). FactCheck.org also notes about 2.8 million of these encounters ended in removal or expulsion from CBP custody, so not all 8M were released into the country. |
| An additional ~2 million 'gotaways' brings the total to about 10 million illegal crossers in three years, averaging 300,000 a month. | The House Homeland Security factsheet cites roughly 2 million known 'gotaways' since the start of FY2021, which added to ~8.72M SW encounters yields the ~10.8M figure. CIS fellow Todd Bensman (the video's host) advances the same 2M gotaways / ~10M total framing. source | checks out | The 2M gotaways figure is a government estimate, not a counted total. DHS gave a 660,000 gotaway estimate for FY2021 and declined to provide updated official figures; the Border Patrol chief said gotaways could be undercounted by ~20%. So the ~10M total mixes a counted figure (encounters) with an estimate (gotaways), and the encounters portion still counts events, not unique individuals. |
The sources, left to right
Leans RightU.S. House Committee on Homeland Security — 'Startling Stats' Factsheet (Oct 2024)backs the video’s point
Since the start of FY2021, CBP recorded more than 10.8 million encounters nationwide, including more than 8.72 million at the Southwest border, plus roughly 2 million known gotaways — about four times the FY2017-2020 gotaway count.
Leans RightCenter for Immigration Studies — Todd Bensman, 'Got-Aways at the Border'backs the video’s point
The video's own host argues roughly 2 million gotaways since FY2021 should be added to recorded encounters, bringing illegal entries to about 10 million over three years.
CenterFactCheck.org — 'Breaking Down the Immigration Figures'backs the video’s point
The 8-10 million figures combine all encounters plus gotaway estimates. It notes about 2.8 million encounters ended in removal or expulsion from CBP custody, that gotaways are DHS estimates, and that encounter totals include repeat crossers (about 27% recidivism in FY2021).
CenterPew Research Center — 'Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border'backs the video’s point
Confirms the year-by-year Border Patrol totals (FY2021 1.66M, FY2022 2.21M, FY2023 2.05M, FY2024 1.53M) but stresses 'encounters' count events, not people, since agents may encounter the same migrant more than once.
CenterMigration Policy Institute — 'With New Strategies... Migrant Encounters Plunge'
Reports FY2024 SW border encounters fell to about 2.1 million, a 14% drop from FY2023, and estimates about 5.7 million migrants were allowed in to pursue cases or paroled — a smaller 'released' figure than raw encounter totals, and notes one person can appear multiple times.
CenterUSAFacts — 'What can the data tell us about unauthorized immigration?'
Reports just under 11 million nationwide encounters from Oct 2019 to June 2024, while emphasizing these don't reflect unique people because some cross multiple times in the same year, so unique individuals are substantially lower than total encounters.
The data
Southwest border encounters by fiscal year (Border Patrol)
Yearly Border Patrol encounter totals at the Southwest border. Encounters count events, not unique people, and include repeat crossings. · source
How the ~10 million total is built
The ~10.8M nationwide figure combines counted encounters with an estimated gotaway number. Encounters are events, and a portion ended in removal or expulsion. · source
Recidivism rate FY2021 (%)
27